Commentary by Cambridge Realtor Ed Abrams
Based on my experience with real estate development, up-zoning increases gentrification and reduces affordability. I found a study from the Brookings Institute that correlates an increase in gentrification after implementation of upzoning in New York City. The article by Jenna Davis was published July 15, 2021 and it is titled: "The double-edged sword of upzoning" https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-double-edged-sword-of-upzoning/ "Despite these tensions, minimal empirical work has examined the effects of upzonings on gentrification. Aiming to address this gap in the literature, I recently conducted a study examining how a series of upzonings implemented in New York City in the early 2000s interacted with subsequent gentrification pressures (using growth in the non-Hispanic white population as a proxy for gentrification). I find that upzoning activity is positively and significantly associated with the odds of a census tract becoming whiter, suggesting that upzonings might accelerate, rather than temper, gentrification pressures in the short-term." The reason for a reduction in affordability after up-zoning is the increase in LAND VALUE. I found this presentation that explains the economics. The amount of money that a developer will pay for land is directly tied to the amount of real estate that the developer can build and sell. For this reason, the whole premise of increasing housing supply to improve affordability by up-zoning is economically flawed. https://www.livablecalifornia.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/California.pdf The end result of Cambridge’s proposed upzoning, in my opinion, will be a frenzy of tear downs and the building of large luxury properties. Renters in naturally occurring small multi-family homes (such as three-deckers) will be evicted and will not be able to afford to rent or buy in the replacement properties.
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