CITY HOUSING DATA MATTERS: GRAPHS, MAPS & ANALYSIS

This blog speaks to the issue of what Cambridge housing and other development data tells us . This post, which will be changing over time is  based in large part on available city data from the Cambridge Open Portal Site and others, explored in turn through data mining means such as ChatGPT. The material is presented as a series of data visualization slides with commentary. (The two graphs at the top are discussed below).

 City Development Data

DPW City Development Data: What we see here in this visual is that the highest number of city projects are found in East Cambridge, followed by North Cambridge. Fewest are in Mid-Cambridge. The largest percentage of usage of these developments are for residential, followed by office, then labs.

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Rental Prices by Neighborhoods

Highest rents are in East Cambridge, followed by Wellington/Harrington and MIT: These areas closest to jobs and locations. East
Cambridge  is where some of the newest & largest multi-family housing has recently been built.
Lowest rents are in West Cambridge, Strawberry Hill, and Cambridge Highlands. Much of this in older homes & furthest from
both jobs and public transport). 

Ages of Renters and Home Owners by Neighborhood

The highest numbers of renters (GREEN) live in MIT& Riverside, followed by Cambridgeport. The fewest renters live in West Cambridge. The greatest numbers  of homeowners (ORANGE) live in West Cambridge, followed by Neighborhood 9 and Strawberry Hill. Our oldest residents live in Strawberry Hill, followed by West Cambridge. Our youngest residents live in MIT & Agassiz (Baldwin) as seen in the BLUE BARS. This latter reflects university student housing likely.  On home Ownership and higher ages; his likely reflects  early dates people purchased homes.

Nationally some 2.6 million Boomers are dying each year, a number that will approach 4 million a year by 2037. We now  have more than 7,000 Boomer funerals every day., which will increase even more (U. S. Census Bureau -Mar 13, 2024). In Cambridge, considering the ages of many residents living here now, in 5 years, we are likely to have an abundance of housing. This easily could turn to turn to a housing glut if the proposed up-zoning petition passes.

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Housing Starts by Year 

We see in this graph the highs and lows of housing start numbers, but also the increasing number of 1 unit (single family) housing starts in recent years. Likely this reflects individual residents or investors seeking to create (or improve on) single family homes or seeking to down-build (2 family/2 unit-structures to 1 unit).

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Converting one Home Type into Another Home Type 

The ORANGE bar chart shows the number of building permits for converting multifamily to single-family homes by neighborhoods for this year. The largest number of these down-conversions are in Cambridgeport, followed by MIT and Riverside. The fewest number are seen in West Cambridge.
The PURPLE bar chart shows the percentage of building permits by neighborhood replacing one multifamily home with a larger multifamily home this year. The largest number of these conversions are taking place in Cambridgeport, followed by MIT and Riverside. The fewest number of hthese conversions take place in Cambridge Highlands.
The PURPLE and ORANGE bar chart compares the percentage of building permits for replacing one multifamily home with another multifamily home versus converting multifamily homes to single-family homes by neighborhood in Cambridge this year. The purple bars represent the percentage of replacement multifamily permits, while the orange bars represent the percentage of convernsion to single-family permits. The greatest number of conversions of multi-family to single family homes occurs in Cambridgeport followed by MIT and Riverside. The fewest number take place in Cambridge Highlands, followed by Strawberry Hill and West Cambridge. 
CONCLUSIONS: the largest number of down-conversions are taking place in the denser, once less-expensive neighborhoods. The fewest conversions take place in the A and B districts where single family homes predominate already.

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One Unit and Two Unit Housing Starts Mapped Citywide by Dates

The distribution of both 1 unit and 2 unit Housing Starts appears  to be pretty evenly distributed for both across North Cambridge, Neighborhood 9, West Cambridge, Wellington-Harrington, East Cambridge, and Cambridgeport. One Unit Housing Starts are more frequent than Two-Unit Homes.  Riverside, Cambridge Highlands, the Alewife Quad coupled with the Harvard and MIT campus areas have the fewest numbers.

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Multi-Housing Starts (3-4 and 5+ units)

The larger multi-family housing starts  appear to be targeting those neighborhoods considered to be denser and “less expensive.” in earlier periods of Cambridge history. 3-4 Unit housing starts, and 5+units, are particularly found in North Cambridge, Neighborhood 9,  East Cambridge, the Port, and Cambridgeport. Those with the fewest number include Riverside,  Mid-Cambridge., and West Cambridge. Riverside and Mid-Cambridge are already heavily built up. West Cambridge properties have historically been more expensive.

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Percentage of Housing Starts for Multifamily Housing and
Multifamily VS Single Family by Neighborhood

PURPLE  CHART  (Left): shows  the neighborhoods with the greatest number of multifamily housing starts are Cambridgeport,
MIT, North Cambridge and Riverside.  PURPLE AND ORANGE CHART (right)L shows the neighborhood differences between
multifamily and single-family housing starts. The largest number of single-family housing starts are in Cambridge Highlands,
Strawberry Hill, followed by West Cambridge.  Both charts appear to reflect differentials in available housing & property values.

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Building Permits and Neighborhoods

The BLUE GRAPH (left) shows building permits by neighborhood. The greatest number are found in MIT and Cambridgeport,
Followed by The Port and Riverside. The fewest were pulled in Cambridge Highlands.
The BLUE AND GREEN GRAPH (right) compares Residential (Green) and Commercial (Blue) Building Permits.  The largest
number of residential permits (GREEN) are drawn in Cambridgeport, followed by MIT, The Port, Wellingon-Harrington,
and West Cambridge. The largest number of commercial permits (BLUE), were pulled in Cambridgeport, followed by MIT. 
CONCLUSIONS: The highest number of building permits, signaling new buildings or major renovations are occuring in our densest neighborhoods, and those that earlier were considered to be less expensive. This is likely based in part on differentials in land values and housing purchase costs. These same neighborhoods are experiencing continuing issues with gentrification and disruption as well as what appears to be the largest intrusion of commercial development in multi-use or residential areas.

  SUMMARY OF TRENDS

​GENERAL TRENDS

•Increased Units: Most neighborhoods show a net increase in units, indicating that housing developments are typically designed to add more units than were previously on the site. This trend is especially noticeable in neighborhoods with larger developments, where commercial or vacant land has been converted into multi-unit housing.

•Neighborhood-Specific Growth:
oNeighborhoods like 1, 6, and 10 show consistent growth, with several years seeing notable increases in the number of units.
oNeighborhood 1 (East Cambridge), in particular, shows significant increases in certain years, suggesting that areas near the city center or business districts have been more likely to experience larger, denser housing projects.
•Stable or Declining Units: In some cases, especially in certain years and neighborhoods, the number of units either remains stable or decreases slightly. This might be due to developments that replace larger structures with fewer residential units or a temporary reduction in the number of units during redevelopment phases.
Evaluating Proposed vs. Prior Units:

• Larger Projects in Denser Areas: Areas closer to business hubs or transportation corridors, such as Neighborhood 1, tend to see more significant jumps in the number of units. Prior uses such as warehouses or commercial properties in these areas have often been replaced by high-density housing, resulting in net increases in the number of housing units.

•Medium-Density Growth: Neighborhoods with a balance of residential and commercial land, like Neighborhood 6, see steady but more moderate increases in the number of units. These increases are likely due to infill developments or redevelopments of vacant lots and smaller commercial properties.
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•Smaller-Scale Development: In some neighborhoods, such as Neighborhood 10, housing developments tend to be smaller in scale, with less dramatic increases in the number of units. In these cases, prior uses such as small residential or commercial properties are often replaced with similarly scaled housing, resulting in only modest growth in housing units.

Summary:
•Across most neighborhoods, the proposed use generally adds more housing units than the prior use, reflecting a trend toward increased density, especially in central and more urbanized areas. The data highlights that Cambridge has been moving toward densification, particularly in neighborhoods with underutilized commercial or industrial land, while outer neighborhoods or already-developed residential areas show more moderate changes.

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CONCLUSIONS

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New Housing (based on Housing Starts and the pulling of Building Permits) varies considerably over both time and city locations, as do the numbers of units being built and larger issues such as rent payment amounts. Exploring this data and determining the rationales behind these variations is critical as we plan for the future. The proposed solution for one factor, often will impact on others. Values of existing properties, and property availability remain important factors. On a whole the data reveal that what is happening on the ground is reinforcing strongly gentrification patterns in our denser neighborhoods, and upzoning will further escalate these trends and will bring greater instability here.

Credits: Suzanne P. Blier, Harvard IT Staff, City of Cambridge Data, ChatGPT and other sources.