Doing the Math: On Residents, Housing, and Rezoning

The data below on residents and housing is from analysis of the current most advanced AI (ChatGPT) using census and other city data around issues of housing. I am happy to share the detailed analysis math with you.
 
Average Ages of City Residents

• c.42-46 years old is the Average Age (and 40-46 years old is the Median age) of Cambridge residents once we remove college students, graduate students, post docs, and interns. This is considerably higher than the 30.6 average age number that Is now being used for the average age of regular residents here. The reason this latter number is problematic to use is not only because it includes our large, short term student populations (many of whom are here for 1-4 years only, but also because it is often used in an agist and disparaging manner to negate the views of older residents who attend meetings.

 People on Cambridge Lists for Public Housing

• c.3400 is the number of  unique Cambridge residents, workers, affiliates on our list for public housing. This is a manageable number to provide for. The number often cited by the city and public housing advocates of 21,000 individuals on the housing list misrepresents the number because we do not require people to reapply each year and many have already found homes or have left the area. And most e are on multiple lists (in Cambridge and elsewhere) simultaneously.

City Homeowner numbers

• c.40-45% is the home ownership rate in Cambridge, and approximately 55-60% of the housing units are owner occupied. The large majority of these are condo owners. The remaining housing is rental units.
• c. 208 and 550 Cambridge homes are likely owned by students, doctoral students, and interns: This represents c.1.0% to 2.5% of the total owner-occupied homes
• 2-3 years is the average length of time that students, grad students, and interns in Cambridge own their homes with some variation depending on individual circumstances.
• 520 to 1,300 homes in Cambridge may be vacant for more than 9 months each year.
• 200-825 homes is the number of vacant city homes  (or 10%-30%) likely due to speculation.

 
City Renters/Rental Units

• c.31,200 to 38,500 is the number of rental units in Cambridge. A large # of these units are occupied by students, postdocs, and interns.
• c.16,900 to 23,600 rental units are occupied by the student/post doc groups.
• c.7,600 to 14,000 rental units, are likely occupied by long-term residents, which include families, professionals, and non-student adults.
• c.54% to 63% of our rental units are occupied by student affiliated renters.
• c.37% to 46% of our rental units are occupied by long-term residents.
• 1.2 years. Average rental stay of students, postdocs, and interns, depending on their specific academic or professional circumstances. Note: Every time a rental property turns over (lease is changed) it is likely that the rental rates will rise.
• 7-10 years. Average rental stay of long-term residents,
• Conclusions: What we really need are rental units in Cambridge (and this is precisely what Vancouver and some other cities are adding, rather than fueling the investor market with more luxury condos. San Francisco and other cities with large university students have more effectively advocated for increased housing by local universities and bio-tech and info-tech industries.
• We need to step back and look at likely impacts of the election on soft money staffing and housing needs of area universities and hospitals. Doing a massive upzoning that will only fuel more land speculation will likely do serious harm.

 
  Possible Evictions due to upzoning  (if the 6 story properties in residential properties citywide is Ordained.

• 1,000-2,000 demolished residential properties are expected over the first decade of redevelopment.
• 2,000-6,000 displaced tenants. Assuming each building is occupied by an average of 2-3 tenants per unit, this could result in 2,000-6,000 tenants being displaced in the early stages of redevelopment.

 
Housing Needs and Election Outcomes. In the aftermath of the recent election, I did an analysis of likely impacts of this event on Cambridge Housing Needs, and found that in all likelihood, the demand for new housing (outside investor interests) will likely decline substantially.  I take into account the likely impacts on local universities, hospitals, biotech, and other fields. Read HERE 
 
Since housing needs are likely to significantly decline, I urge you hold off on a massive upzoning until we know the fuller election impacts. I know that universities are already meeting on the impacts of the election on related numbers and programs internally. I also strongly urge you to read my analysis what specifically other progressive cities have done re-upzoning. It is NOT what some on council and elsewhere have said: Read: Zoning Lessons From other Cities: Will We Heed Them?.
The current upzoning proposal is way off base as far as these far more detailed other proposals are concerned.  
 
 Read other housing linked blog posts (https://www.suzanneprestonblier.com/civic-blogs