 The current Cambridge Upzoning proposal, brought to us by the pro-developer group on Council and working for the City is primarily focused on two things: 1) adding much more housing (regardless of type or likely impacts ) and 2) increasing city density above current high density levels. We are currently listed as top 5-7% of the most dense cities in the country with a population over 100,000. What the proposed up-zoning plan will NOT do as written is to bring down the cost of housing here (a key interest of most Cambridge residents).. Other cities have created plans that target the types of housing they want to see built, and often that includes factors that could reduce housing cost increases that we are now seeing on a near global scale. Let's look at the Cambridge housing data more closely using ChatGPT to help us address these questions using the Cambridge Property Database. The Numbers Game: How Much New Housing Do We Need?The city's Community Development Department (CDD) has stated as a basic premise that Cambridge will not meet our 2030 Housing Goals without a radical up-zoning. However this assumption is highly questionable. One city resident has looked at the numbers posted by CDD and addressed this on a neighborhood listserve. They have pointed out that 3050 units have been created since 2019 (source: CDD's June 30, 2024 on the Public Housing Inventory. When we add to this 750 units now being built and the 3,950 units that have now been permitted after June of 2023 (source HERE) we come up with a total of 7750 units of the city's 2030 goal of 12,500 units (or 62% achieved based on the 2018 goal based on housing data at that time. This makes it likely we will meet the 2030 goal without a radical up-zoning. In short, the rationales for this radical up-zoning are based on faulty assumptions, and this is not even taking into account the enormous impacts that COVID has had locally and around the world on the construction industry, including parts availability and workers. Builiding on our Vacant PropertiesMany cities feature particular areas of the urban landmass to focus greater height and density, specifically in those areas that are not currently being developed. Cambridge might do that as well, by offering a premium (greater height and FAR/density allowances) to currently vacant properties. Currently we have a range of vacant lots identified as follows: Residential Development Land (130 lots); Commercial Development Land (390 lots); Industrial Development Land (440). A number of these would be great targets of opportunity. The key advantage of these sites is that they would not require the demolition of existing homes and the evictions or lease terminations of existing residents to achieve new housing goals. While these sites are more heavily in our former factory-linked areas of the city, there are enough of them around Cambridge to ensure that these opportunities would be balance. The below maps are color coded to show the most valuable properties in a darker blue.  Demolitions: Single-Family, Two-Family and 3-Family Homes in PlayThe current Cambridge Up-Zoning proposal is focused on the residential areas of the city. A key goal is to allow multi-family housing to be built citywide, as was done before the 1930s eras zoning which advantaged those areas furthest from former factory sites. Most Cambridge residents, City Councillors and city staff strongly support rezoning to simply allow multi-family housing citywide. Most other progressive cities have done so by allowing more units to be built on the same (larger) lot - for example up to 3 units, and decreasing required lot size modestly in some cases. In Cambridge, because we are an already dense city that is also in high demand, most of the impacts of up-zoning would be the demolishment of existing homes to replace them with others. CDD was not able to tell City Council where the demolitions most likely would happen, but a quick look at the city's own database make it very clear that the main targeted areas will be in our once lower income areas. Generally speaking to build a taller structure with more housing what one also needs to address is the relative cost of the property. In the maps below, we see that the areas with the less expensive properties for the 4,000 SF to 6,000 SF sites are in North Cambridge, Strawberry Hill, as well as in Cambridgeport and East Cambridge among other areas. As is happening now with investor purchases, these are likely to be special targets. And, most likely these properties will be used for taller and larger and even more expensive single family homes, and/or the occasional very expensive ($1.5 to 2 million dollar) condo.  The city should consult with real estate agents working in Cambridge, as well as staff at the Cambridge Historical Commission (CHC) to better understand the current trends in this area. We are seeing increasing numbers of demolitions of homes to rebuild with fewer numbers of more expensive units. And we are seen demolitions of single family homes to create larger single family homes on the same site. Any demolition of a building over 50 years old must go to the CHC for review before demolitions can take place. The review the proposed plans at the same time. Whatever the purchase price and renovation costs for these properties, the end results are fewer housing numbers and more expensive properties. This is happening throughout the city as delimited in the database of property values over the last 10 years:  What also is evident here is the far greater interest in Single Family Housing (SFH) over Two Family Homes (TFH) and Three Family Homes (3FH), as well as the higher price point for each. Single Family Homes on larger lots carry an especially high value, which makes them less likely to result in demolitions to build far taller, multi-family homes.  Two Family Homes provide an additional set of interesting insights. Many are now being turned into single family housing. As we can see in the color (value) differences in the maps below, the hardest hit neighborhoods are North Cambridge, Strawberry Hill, Cambridge Highlands, Cambridgeport. and East Cambridge. These are likely to be the special target of investors and developers. They would be likely to seek the best returns, e.g. in luxury housing (single family or 2-3 condos) at very steep price points. Important Note: in the current zoning plans there is no design oversight for any of these homes (since they are well under 75,000 SF) so that neighbors would have no means of offering insights into the proposed plans (unlike now at the Planning Board or BZA) and these would be "as of right," so legal action likely would not be possible for neighbors, even for shoddy workmanship and potential harm to one's own property. Based on the data we have, individual condo investors are rarely occupants of these units.  Larger 1 and 2 family homes across the city now are largely all of high points.  Existing three family housing provides still other insights. As we can see clearly in these photos, triple deckers and other forms are found citywide even in many single-family only districts. The larger property units that are most likely to be demolished again are in the once less expensive neighborhoods of North Cambridge, Strawberry Hill, parts of Cambridgeport and East Cambridge. Most likely replacements based on current market trends are larger Single Family Homes and 1-3 very expensive ($1.5 million and up) luxury condos.  We will now turn to a comparison of 1, 2, 3 Family Homes across the city, explore locations and value. We see the largest price point variables in the large 5,000 SF to 6,999 SF properties. Those are likeliest to be targeted for larger single family homes and luxury 1-3 condo luxury properties.  Condominiums: a Question of Ownership and OutcomesLet's turn specifically to our Condominium stock and how prices are impacted in it. The city database provides us with key information on ownership. As of Fiscal Year 2022, Cambridge, MA, had a total of 14,573 condominium units. Of these, 5,542 units received the residential exemption, while 9,031 did not. This means approximately 38% of condos benefited from the exemption, and 62% did not. The residential exemption is available to homeowners who occupy their property as their primary residence. In Fiscal Year 2025, the exemption amount is $499,263, resulting in tax savings of $3,170 for eligible residents. In the top-row maps below. The blue dots represent the owner occupied condos. The red dots represent the non-owner occupied units. The latter are investment properties and are likely rented out to Cambridge residents at higher costs because the investor also is seeking to benefit monetarily from these.  This ownership factor is important because we know that in the province of Ottawa, Canada, 85 percent of newly built condos have gone to investors. And Canada is being hard hit with increasing housing costs and is seeking ways to redress this. In the current Cambridge up-zoning proposal, we will be opening ourselves up to even more non-resident owned investor condos and the prices of rental housing in these is likely to sky rocket. The type of condo housing matters in terms of price point. Most owner occupied condos are found in the large stock of older Cambridge homes. Home owners love the "character" and historic interest of these homes. By far the most number of NON-RESIDENT OWNED condos are in the larger and taller housing types. These are going to be more expensive. Note: Cambridge is not allowed to discriminate on who owns or invests in housing here in terms of residents versus non-residents. We could increase the costs the costs to non-resident owners. While they are likely to pass on those costs to renters, at some point this could reach a balance point where investors decide that Cambridge housing is not as remunerative since one could simply price oneself out of the market.  Here is what ChatGPT has to say about the reasons why Condo prices are so steep in Cambridge after looking at the City Database. What this indicates as well is that our most expensive units in our larger buildings are owned by investment individuals or investment groups.  ApartmentsOne of the critical needs in Cambridge is for more apartments, and particularly in places near transit lines and work sites. Some cities are focusing their zoning on building more apartment reasons rather than condos for this reason. This seems like a positive idea for Cambridge as well, but we would need to restructure the zoning accordingly. Most of our housing displays a variety of bedroom numbers, from studios to 4+ bedrooms (we can see this in the map on the right). We can see in this map and the one on the left however that there are sizable differences in what is being offered and what most people seeking housing are asking for. Cambridge wants to support more young families. If this is a real goal, we also should incorporate this within our zoning goals and plans. We also need to address outside home investments on rising apartment rental costs. There are several large companies in play here. One example is Blackstone which is now the largest corporate landlord in the world, with over 300,000 homes in the U.S. Many homes are vacant as a result. In 2021, Blackstone paid $325,000,000 for East Cambridge apartment complexes: HERE. Another major housing investor in Cambridge is Brookfield (The University Park Collection - HERE). How many vacancies are in these towers? Here too there is a problem with ownership. In Ottawa, investors bought 85% of new condos. Rental properties are also being acquired in great numbers by investment firms. In Cambridge, one example is Blackstone which is now the largest corporate landlord in the world, with over 300,000 homes in the U.S. Many homes are vacant as a result. In 2021, Blackstone paid $325,000,000 for East Cambridge apartment complexes: HERE. Have their rents been impacted? How many vacancies are in these towers? Can the city assessor also address this? Another major housing investor in Cambridge is Brookfield (The University Park Collection - HERE). Who are the other large outside investment firms buying housing in Cambridge? Ask the assessor and CDD what impact these companies have already had on the cost of housing here, and what impact they and other companies will have with the new up-zoning proposal.  The Bedroom Numbers QuestionA closer look at our housing provides further insights re: bedroom numbers and locations in the city. A disproportionate number of our apartments are studio units. Is this what our residents would like to see, and if not, how do we change this in a way that would be financially viable?  Public HousingPlanning for housing needs includes not simply factors of cost and "a roof over one's head" but also key issues like bedroom types. Our Public Housing Goals are also important to keep in mind, whether we are talking about exclusionary buildings (AHO or lower income Section 8 housing), or our more integrated "Inclusionary Housing" (set now as 20% of all new residential buildings with over 10 units). The data on Cambridge public housing ia interesting, because the results reveal how relatively widely spread across the city these units are, especially with inclusionary housing). The map below is from a "live" map created here: City Map of Public Housing Locations (by Housing Type).  It appears that the up-zoning proposal will greatly impede our ability to add more lower height (human scale) public housing, because not only were parking minimums removed from market rate housing, but also the increased 4 story allowed heights of public housing have been superseded by the proposed 6 story market rate (luxury) housing proposal. The current up-zoing proposal created a carve out that now allows up to 13 story public housing structures in every residential neighborhood, most of which now have housing that on average reaches only two and a half stories. Not only will the 13 story public housing structures introduce a more visually separated community of residents in our now more economically heterogeneous neighborhoods, but these large structures would require much larger foot prints to build so would make it more difficult to find available lots at the price points that make it feasible to undertake such projects. COVID IMPACTSIn Cambridge and across the country the COVID epidemic left a huge impact not only on individual lives and the economy, but also on the housing situation. With supply chain stoppages, and with a lack of builders almost every city in the country was impacted- including Cambridge. How do we compare to other cities? Very well! What do our Building Permits say? And what does ChatGPT say about them?  But equally if not more importantly, since the pandemic hit us after our estimates for new housing goals were in place, how have we incorporated the COVID impacts into our game plan. Is there an offset we are providing the city to meet its goals based on COVID impacts? These are among the many factors that we should be taking into account! CONCLUSIONSThe rezoning results are only as good as the product (the zoning language) we apply. One should not leave it to "chance" or the financial interest of investors, many of whom are not local to our city or to the area. Cambridge is filled with smart and caring individuals, let's create more housing that comports with this shared legacy.
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