The City has anticipated that our population to rise some 25% by 2030 (just 5 years away). 12,500 new dwelling units is about 25% of 49,564 households, which is the estimates provided in the 2020 decennial U.S. Census household count of 49,564. This is presuming that (more or less) 1 dwelling unit equals 1 household. That is a massive increase if true. Yet a lot has changed since the 2020 census. And a lot has changed since the Envision Report when, according to Robert Winters, the proposal to add 12,500 new units in Cambridge was never discussed but simply added by CDD staff afterwards. . We are already seeing the impact of the new administration policy changes, including cuts to science and other funding which could severely impact programs (and staffing) at our local universities and hospitals, many affiliates of whom are housed in Cambridge. Moreover, if this administration's policies on vaccines are put in place, the financial well being of biotech in Cambridge will be impacted. The new, faster, and more efficient AI from China could impact local infotech companies as well. Another impact will be felt in the staffing of our local universities, hospitals, and large commercial companies which have been dependent on emigre and non-native communities. Yet another factor to consider is the huge costs that the building industry will face in this administration, not only in terms of non-native workers, but also with the anticipated large scale tariffs on goods from China (key building materials), Canada (lumber), Mexico, and elsewhere. We may be seeing a building construction freeze on par with COVID at the same time that many in our community will face greater financial struggles as federal funds for medicaid, SNAP, social security, and other programs are enacted. In short, we may soon be facing staffing (and housing needs) cut backs across the region and in Cambridge more generally. All this makes clear that rushing forward with an massive citywide up-zoning that will lead to the demolition of existing homes (including the Third Street multifamily home shown at the top of this post), makes far less sense now than when this radical citywide upzoning was first proposed. Likely there also will be even greater need for lower income housing here - not luxury housing - which will clearly raise property values and property taxes that are particularly impactful on our lower- and middle-income owners and renters, as well as seniors on fixed incomes. How will we as a city address this critical need? Addressing Known Cambridge Demographic ChangesAnd, even if these political and economic impact changes were not in place, core demographic changes in Cambridge need to be considered. It will likely take c. 5-10 years for the city and area to come back to current norms, from the major federally-induced trade, economic, and institutional changes. And, considering what we are going to face demographically locally and nationally with the end of the baby boom generation, the level of new housing needs should be reframed, as well as the types of housing that would be important to have here. See chart below: from the Congressional Budget Office: Outlook for Housing Starts (9:2024): HERE CDD HOUSING PROJECTIONS
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